But he suggested prices were likely now at their bottom and may increase in the coming months due to various factors – something he acknowledged would cause tension in the low demand environment. Wood consumption, he said, would remain weak in 2024 – essentially unchanged from 2023.

“The single biggest problem for wood consumption is interest rates,” he said.

Mr Berg said in the past, downturns had followed a consistent pattern, but he said there were some different features of the current market situation. This shift included the fact that sawmills had not kept producing as they did in the past downturns, but had reduced shift levels.

Mr Berg shared European and global timber statistics, showing that Spain was the only country in Europe recording growth (+1%) in timber import levels in January-June 2023. The UK registered a 5% decrease, Mr Berg added, actually outperforming most other countries in Europe.

In all, European timber imports / exports to and from Europe were down 21% during the period – equivalent to 3.1 million m3, with Russia & Belarus accounting for 2.1 million m3 of that.

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